UDP Convention in the Culture Capital – Outcome Evaluation of Castillo Poll # 3

Dr. Philip Castillo

The UDP mayoral convention in Dangriga was held on Sunday August 9, 2026. Field work for the poll seeking to predict the convention results was held a week earlier on Sunday August 1 and published shortly thereafter.

Here goes the outcome evaluation of Castillo Poll # 3…a comparison of the poll prediction vs actual election results.  

Table 1: Turnout

Table # 2 – Mayor

Source: Castillo Poll # 3 of 2026 ( August 2026) & Official Results

Table # 3 – Councilors

Source: Castillo Poll # 3 of 2026 ( August 2026) & Official Results

Key Takeaways from the Evaluation

1. The poll accurately predicted the Mayoral candidate and accurately predicted five of the six councilor candidates.
2. At the time of the poll, 12.8% of the sample was UNDECIDED for Mayor. Based on the results, virtually all of the Undecideds shifted to Mr. Sampson.
3. As noted by the poll and confirmed by the actual results, the two highest vote getters were Dayton Sabal and Jamall Swazo. Both received more votes that mayoral candidate Dwayne Sampson.
4. In a first test of her political strength, the Constituency Caretaker was victorious as she had openly supported the Sampson Team that eventually won.  
5. Poll results continue to shatter the myth that elections are won on election day. This poll was done exactly one week before actual elections day. At that time there were only 12.8% undecided. In general, the percentage of undecided reduce as elections draw nearer. On actual elections day, there are generally few undecided voters to influence final outcomes.
6. In email comments, some persons are of the view that pollsters can influence actual results. I  disagree. True, there is something known as the Bandwagon Effect, which says that IF a credible pollster predicts that Candidate A will win, there will likely be voters who vote for Candidate A so that they are on the bandwagon.  This perspective, though, is countered by what is regarded as the Boomerang Effect. This says that if a pollster predicts that Candidate A will win, there is absolutely nothing stopping Candidate B from redoubling his/ her efforts to achieve victory and thereby disprove the pollster. Polling, remember, seeks to predict. There is however a type of poll in which you can ask voters who they voted for and why. This is known as Exit Polling.
7. Based on exit polling abroad, pollsters report that any bandwagon or boomerang effects hardly occur. Voters mostly have their reasons why they vote for certain candidates. A typical voter   may not reveal such reasons to the candidates during pre-election campaigning, BUT  are likely to be more open and honest and confidential with a pollster.
8. With a margin of error of +/- 9%, the poll had estimated the highest voter turnout to be 757. That actual turnout was higher at 886 indicates enthusiasm and motivation of the part of UDP voters in Dangriga. American pollsters also measure these indicators, which they often cite as potentially the start of a wave.
9. In Dangriga, the March 2027 Municipal Elections will feature Team Sampson vs Team Mariano. There may be need for an early poll.

Dr. Philip Castillo is a development economist and an independent pollster. Send comments to pjcastillobz@gmail.com