Dr. Philip Castillo
Municipal elections are eight months away and the first steps start with party conventions to select Mayoral and councilor candidates. The Opposition UDP will hold its convention this weekend on August 9. The convention will feature two candidates vying for Mayor, and each candidate has his/her respective slate of six councilor candidates. Hence the ballot will have a total of 14 candidates. Only 7 can win.
Castillo Poll # 3 of 2026 presents the findings of a poll conducted in Dangriga over the weekend of August 1st to 3rd. For a municipal election, the target population is the registered voters of that municipality. However for a party convention, that target population deliberately excludes known members of the other party. So for the upcoming UDP convention, the party will not allow known PUP members to vote. That presents a major challenge since ascertaining who is a “known PUP” is a subjective endeavour. This also means that for polling purposes, the actual target population is unknown.
The above, notwithstanding…here goes:
Table # 1 – Mayor
| # | Mayoral Candidate | % Votes | Comments |
| 1 | Cristalyn Castillo | 23.4 | |
| 2 | Dwayne Sampson | 63.8 | Projected Winner |
| Undecided | 12.8 |
Source: Castillo Poll # 3 of 2026 ( August 2026)
Table # 2 – Councilors
| # | Councilor | % Votes | Comments | |
| YES | NO | |||
| 1. | Gary “Stitch” ENRIQUEZ | 23.3 | 76.7 | |
| 2. | Cindy Jessica FAJARDO | 53.5 | 46.5 | ELECTED 6 |
| 3. | Keanna FIGUEROA | 18.6 | 81.4 | |
| 4. | Stephen “Coach” LAURIE | 46.5 | 53.5 | |
| 5. | Elsworth “Vida” MAGDALENO | 55.8 | 44.2 | ELECTED 5 |
| 6. | Francis “FX” MARIN | 46.5 | 53.5 | |
| 7. | Albourne “Beeze” MARSHALL | 55.8 | 44.2 | ELECTED 4 |
| 8. | Marsha Emelia MEJIA | 48.8 | 51.2 | |
| 9. | Dayton “Ballal” SABAL | 81.4 | 18.6 | ELECTED 1 |
| 10. | John “Shush” SABAL | 58.1 | 41.9 | ELECTED 3 |
| 11. | Jamall SWASO | 65.1 | 34.9 | ELECTED 2 |
| 12. | Keisha Chavez WALTON | 37.2 | 62.8 | |
Source: Castillo Poll # 3 of 2026 ( August 2026)
A poll is a sample randomly drawn from a given population. I’ve already noted the challenges of identifying the target population. Yet another challenge undertaking any poll is that there WILL always be a margin of error. The margin of error relates to the extent to which the mean or the average of the sample (which is known) varies from the mean or the parameter of wider population (which is unknown). This degree of variance is expressed as a plus (+) or minus (-) because the variation can go in either direction. Polling organizations generally use a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. This poll had a margin of error of +/- 9%.
Another statistic that must be noted is the degree of confidence. This refers to the extent to which if you draw repeat samples you realistically expect the same results. For this poll the degree of confidence was at 90 %. This means that if the sample was drawn a hundred times, in ninety out of those one hundred times, the expected result would be the very same. Polling organizations generally use a degree of confidence of 95%.
From my projections, I estimate the voting population on Sunday August 9th 2026 to be around 695 voters. However accounting for the margin of error, the voting population could be as low as 9% less than 695. Or as high as 9% above 695. The actual ranges are 633 to 757 .
Tables 1 and 2 above are redone using these numbers to estimate actual votes.
Table # 3 – Mayor
| # | Mayoral Candidate | Estimated Votes | Comments |
| 1 | Cristalyn Castillo | 148 — 177 | |
| 2 | Dwayne Sampson | 403 — 482 | Still Projected Winner |
| Undecided | 81 — 96 |
Source: Castillo Poll # 3 of 2026 ( August 2026)
Table # 4 – Councilors
| # | Councilor | Estimated Votes | Comments |
| 1. | Gary “Stitch” ENRIQUEZ | 147 – 176 | |
| 2. | Cindy Jessica FAJARDO | 338 – 404 | Toss Up |
| 3. | Keanna FIGUEROA | 117 –140 | |
| 4. | Stephen “Coach” LAURIE | 294 –352 | Toss Up |
| 5. | Elsworth “Vida” MAGDALENO | 353 – 422 | Likely to Win |
| 6. | Francis “FX” MARIN | 294 – 352 | Toss up |
| 7. | Albourne “Beeze” MARSHALL | 353 – 422 | Likely to win |
| 8. | Marsha Emelia MEJIA | 308 – 369 | Toss up |
| 9. | Dayton “Ballal” SABAL | 515 – 616 | Still Elected |
| 10. | John “Shush” SABAL | 367 – 439 | Still Elected |
| 11. | Jamall SWASO | 412 – 492 | Still Elected |
| 12. | Keisha Chavez WALTON | 235 – 281 |
Source: Castillo Poll # 3 of 2026 ( August 2026)
Accounting for the margin of error, Dayton Sabal, Jamall Swaso and John Sabal are still EXPECTED to win. Elsworth Magdaleno and Albourne Mashall are LIKELY to win. For the sixth and final council seat, probabilistically and because the numbers fall within the range of the margin of error, Marsha Mejia and Cindy Fajardo are favorites BUT Steven Laurie and Francis Marin have a punchers chance.
Dr. Philip Castillo is a development economist and an independent pollster. Send comments to pjcastillobz@gmail.com