Belize NMS Says Higher Than Normal Hurricane Season

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The 2024 forecast suggests tropical cyclone activity will be above normal in the Atlantic
Basin according to Belize’s Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon. The prediction is for 17 to 25 named storms. Of those, eight to 13 are expected to become hurricanes, and four to seven are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger). An average season in the Atlantic Basin consists of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

June 1st marks the official start of the 2024 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin
(North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico). The season runs from June 1st
to November 30th each year; however, there are occasions when a tropical cyclone may
form outside of this period.

The two main factors that are likely to influence the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:

(1) A high chance that a La Niña will develop during the peak of this year’s hurricane
season. This factor will likely contribute to enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the
Atlantic basin.

(2) Warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Basin, which is
expected to provide more energy to fuel tropical cyclone development.

What Does this Mean for Belize?

Seasonal predictions give an indication of how active a particular hurricane season is
expected to be, but they do not tell when a particular hurricane will develop or where it
will track once developed. One or more of the 17 to 25 named storms forecast to
develop this season could hit the country, or none at all. Therefore, as a nation located
in an area vulnerable to the hazards posed by tropical cyclones, Belize should be
prepared each year regardless of the forecast.

The team of experts at the National Meteorological Service (NMS) of Belize in the
Ministry of Blue Economy and Disaster Risk Management will use all assets at its
disposal to monitor and track developing systems and alert the National Emergency
Management Organization (NEMO) and the public in a timely manner, should any
system pose a threat to Belize. Contributed by Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorologist, National Meteorological Service, Ladyville Belize City.