ONE YEAR APPROVAL RATINGS IN DANGRIGA

By Dr. Philip Castillo

Castillo Poll # 1 of 2026

First the context. Mr. Robert Mariano is the two time Mayor of Dangriga Town. However, for General Elections purposes, the Dangriga Constituency extends beyond the town. The broader constituency encompasses the nearby villages of Sarawee and Hope Creek. Of the 6,300 voters in the constituency, 85.5% are from Dangriga Town including a few from the outlying cayes, 10.5% are from Hope Creek and 4% are from Sarawee. Dr. Louis Zabaneh is the two time area representative for the Dangriga Constituency. 

The Dangriga Constituency is one of Belize’s 31 electoral divisions. With his PUP having a 26 to 5 supermajority in Parliament, Mr. John Briceno is the two time Prime Minister of Belize.

Ms. Earth Lopez is the recently elected Opposition UDP caretaker for the Dangriga Constituency.

APPROVAL RATING – MAYOR ROBERT MARIANO

Taking all things into consideration, do you approve of the job that Mr. Robert Mariano is doing as Mayor?

Mayor Mariano first won his seat in 2021 with 50.7% of the votes. He repeated in 2024 with 62.6% of the votes. As noted above, his approval rating is 48.9%.

While the poll did not ask respondents to provide any explanation for their response, some did anyway. That municipal infrastructural works need to be undertaken was mentioned. That garbage collection can be improved was similarly cited. Employment or the lack thereof is perennially regarded as an issue.  

Worthy of note is that his margin of victory in 2024 increased by double digits over his 2021 victory. His approval rating has basically now reverted back to his electoral victory margin in 2021. On the positive side for the Mayor is that because 17% did not express an opinion, he would only need to convince a marginal percentage for his approval rating to increase to above 50%. Probabilistically and statistically, an approval rating of above 50% translates to victory at the polls.

But there are not so subtle signs of vulnerability. The Opposition is now united and increasingly animated and portraying confidence. That the UDP Vice-Chairman is from Dangriga may translate to more campaigning resources and muscle at the local level, though that remains to be seen.

What can be said with a greater degree of certainty though, is that Mayor Mariano’s electoral chances at the next elections will more be determined by the quality of his opponent, the perception of the voter regarding his/her economic circumstances, the size and state of his base voters, and money.

APPROVAL RATING – AREA REPRESENTATIVE DR. LOUIS ZABANEH

Dr. Zabaneh first won his seat is 2020 with 61.7% of the votes. Five years later he repeated with 76.5% of the votes. But this latter percentage has to be regarded as an outlier. In 2025, the Opposition UDP was in the throes of its internal civil war. On Nomination Day, its Standard Bearer Mr. Norman Usher did not show up. Who did in fact show up, was independent candidate Mr. Cyril “Uruwei” Garcia.  With no UDP candidate on the ballot, support from both factions of the UDP coalesced behind Mr. Garcia. Earlier polling had indicated that base UDP voters were so disgusted at their party and they opted not to vote.

Taking all things into consideration, do you approve of the job that Dr. Louis Zabaneh is doing as Area Representative?

As noted above, the poll found Dr Zabaneh’s approval rating to be 41.8%.  Issues mentioned by respondents include challenges accessing the Area Representative and “working only for family”. One in every four respondents (25.5%) does not approve of the job that the Area Representative is doing. And one in every three respondents (32.7%) is unsure. A deeper analysis of the data though reveals that his overall approval rating obscures the level of variation across the constituency. Support was lost in Dangriga and Sarawee, but the Area Representative remains comparatively strong in the Hope Creek/Long Bank area.

Who is Earth Lopez?

While the UDP mayoral candidate remains unknown, not so with the General Elections candidate.  True, Ms. Earth Lopez is not yet the UDP Standard Bearer for 2030 General Elections, but with her convincing victory as Constituency Caretaker, she is the undisputed local powerbroker and she has been taking steps to increase her profile. This means, therefore, that the next General Elections in the Dangriga Constituency will likely be a face-off between PUP incumbent Dr Louis Zabaneh and UDP Ms. Earth Lopez.

Ms. Earth Lopez is a Garifuna by ethnicity. Prior to my debut into local polling some six years ago, there were assumptions about the voting behavior of the Garinagu that were widely held but poorly substantiated.  Sometime thereafter, I stopped asking questions about ethnicity since I repeatedly found that ethnicity corelates poorly with voting behavior/intentions in the “Culture Capital”. But what about gender? How would that variable correlate with voting intentions when the local candidate is a woman and the UDP national leader is a woman and senior party officials are women? Would voters vote for Ms. Lopez merely because she is a woman? In the constituency convention, some did. https://belizean.com/national/constituency-caretaker-convention-in-the-culture-capital/

Note the penultimate paragraph in the above link.

Most recent voter registration in the Dangriga constituency indicate that women (3,338) outnumber men (2,962). And in this same constituency, come election time, door to door campaigning seem to be done almost exclusively by women.

Polling quantifies uncertainty, and when properly done they can provide important insights into voter intentions. But they are affected by a concept called the statistical margin of error, other measurement errors, and what statisticians regard as random noise. Actual elections provide reality checks.  Between now and 2030, there will be actual elections and these will form data points from which projections can be based. Next year, 2027, municipal elections will be held. The following year, 2028, will be Village Council elections in Hope Creek and Sarawee. In the last such elections, in 2025, the PUP won handily in Hope Creek and there wasn’t even a contested election in Sarawee.

These elections will provide opportunities to battle test the UDP machinery in Dangriga, notably its constituency caretaker Ms. Earth Lopez. But, from the perspective of the voters in her constituency, who is Earth Lopez?

The poll asked respondents to use one word to describe Ms. Lopez. We asked for one word, but some said more than a few. Note filtered responses below. We excluded “bad words,” sexist language, and excessive terms of endearment.

Can you use one word to describe UDP Constituency Caretaker Ms. Earth Lopez?

Sometimes, the respondent didn’t say a word. But we also recorded nonverbal responses, which included laughter, smiles, hissing of teeth, bewildered looks, quizzical looks and shrugging of shoulders.

APPROVAL RATING – PRIME MINISTER MR JOHN BRICENO

Taking all things into consideration, do you approve of the job that Mr. John Briceno is doing as Prime Minister?

The poll showed the PM approval rating in Dangriga Constituency to be 21.8%, exactly similar to the percentage who opted not to express any opinion, but substantially less than the 56.4% who expressly professed a negative opinion.

Based on the most recent data – December 2025 – from the Statistical Institute of Belize, inflation in Dangriga at 0.3 percent is exactly the same as the national average, https://sib.org.bz/wp-content/uploads/CPI_2025-12.pdf   but one would never know this from the responses of Grigalizeans who blame the “Govament” and the Prime Minister for high prices. Grigalizeans remain pessimistic about their economic circumstances and that is borne out by the most recent SIB Consumer Confidence Index (December 2025) which noted that the Stann Creek District recorded the largest decline in consumer confidence. https://sib.org.bz/wp-content/uploads/CCI_2025-12.pdf. Some respondents viewed the proposed BTL acquisition of Speednet as a “hustle” and “corruption.”

Given our Westminster type democracy, we don’t vote for a PM. We vote for an area representative and the party that has at least 16 area representatives, wins the elections and the party leader becomes the Prime Minister. From that perspective, the approval rating of the PM in one constituency ought not to matter much in the greater scheme of things. This is the very first known poll of the approval rating of the PM in Dangriga – OR indeed anywhere else in the country and as such, there is no comparable data with which to benchmark.  Am not certain if the Dangriga Constituency can in any way be regarded as a bellwether constituency, but the specific issue of the BTL acquisition of its competitor Speednet, has the potential to be a watershed moment in Mr. Briceno’s leadership. If this issue becomes a wedge issue, then it can possibly affect political outcomes at the local level.

Finally, redistricting. Belize’s 31 constituencies are woefully malapportioned and this issue remains topical due to the persistent efforts of activist Mr. Jerry Enriquez. At this time, despite rhetorical assurances from GOB, no one knows if redistricting will be done and if so, how it will affect Dangriga. What is known though is that Dangriga is one of the two constituencies in the Stann Creek District.  A perusal of the numbers show that the other constituency, Stann Creek West, is the largest in the country with over 10,922 voters (Source:  https://elections.gov.bz/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/TOTAL-ELECTORS-AS-AT-DECEMBER-2025.pdf).  My unsolicited advice would be to combine the two: Dangriga @ 6,300 and Stann Creek West @ 10,922 and equally divide the total and allow the district to remain with two constituencies of some 8,600 voters each. Should that occur, electoral strategies – and polling – would have to be modified to reflect the new reality.

PS. This poll had a margin of error of +/-6.8%. The target population was residents of the Dangriga Constituency. Subsequent polls will target Registered Voters and nearer the actual election, the target will be Likely Voters.

Comments to pjcastillobz@gmail.com