Constituency Convention in the Culture Capital – An Analysis

Dr. Philip Castillo

For me, the greatest takeaway from the constituency convention for Caretaker in Dangriga was not that Ms. Earth Lopez won, but I suspect that her victory was powered by women voters. Most recent data indicate that a majority 53% of the registered voters in Dangriga are female. In the absence of exit polling, I don’t know the gender breakdown of the 655 voters who actually voted in the convention last Sunday October 5, 2025. But what I do know is that in the polling that preceded the actual elections, women voters were overwhelming for Ms. Lopez and for several reasons. As detailed in my previous post, corruption hardly features in the voting intentions of Dangriga residents (or Belizeans in general),  but those who did cite that issue – among their other reasons – stated that men have “messed up things.” Their perspective is that women, especially mothers,  in leadership positions are likely to be more transparent and better “husbands” of national resources that they are entrusted with. Others opine that with a woman as national Opposition leader, a woman candidate would likely be given  enhanced responsibilities. To the extent that these thought processes factored in the voting decisions of the convention voters, then Ms. Earth, the sole female in the race alongside three males, obviously benefited.

With Earth Lopez as the new UDP Constituency Caretaker in Dangriga, her path to the actual Standard Bearer for the General Elections 2030 is clear. There she will likely face off against the incumbent Dr. Louis Zabaneh. Its way too too early to say anything about 2030, but between now and then, some polls I intend to do include annual approval ratings for the Area Representative in March of each year. The sample for the polls will be stratified to ensure the gender ratio of the polls mirrors that of the gender ratio in the Dangriga electorate. As an analogy, for upcoming events in the sport of boxing, enthusiasts speak of the Tale of the Tape. This represents a comparison of the two contenders across a range of indicators. For upcoming polls, obviously, one of these indicators will focus on gender and gender issues in voting intentions. We shall see what we shall see.

From the table above, marginally less than a quarter of the sample (24%) wanted another UDP candidate or were undecided. The poll was done after nomination was closed so no other candidate was able to enter. Obviously, maybe some of these  undecided opted not to vote. But based on the actual results, I want to believe that this cohort ultimately voted for Mr. Anderson. Again, in the absence of exit polling I can’t definitely state why. But again, from the field work to gather the poll, I know that Mr. Anderson may have likely benefitted from the favourable opinion that Grigalizeans have of his father, who was a medical doctor and active supporter of many social and sports events and teams in the town.  I was further told that the younger Mr. Anderson lives in the USA and spends most of his time there. To the extent that is true and yet he actually obtained nearly a quarter of the votes cast is impressive.

For Mr. Richard Webster, this was his second stint at seeking constituency office. This was also the second poll I did on his voting percentages. Note the table below, which compares the votes Richard obtained in specific polls vs the actual election results:

For Richard, the good news is that he has bedrock base support of around one in every three or 1/3 of the Dangriga constituency UDP voting population. More detailed polling could reveal the demographic profile of his supporters and issues/causes/concerns that factor into their voting decisions. Obviously his challenge is the need to expand his base because the reality that elections are not won by one-third (1/3) of the voting population, they are won by one-half (½ ) plus 1.

For Mr. Simeon Lorenzo, as a pollster, a citizen and a voter, I have nothing but respect for anyone who puts his/her name on a ballot. Beyond that, nothing more to say.

Send comments to pjcastillobz@gmail.com